Global changes in the distribution of Bidens pilosa as an effect of climate change
Bidens pilosa (Asteraceae) is an annual species native to the Americas and reported as an invasive alien plant species in many tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world where it causes negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. It can also invade agricultural areas where it has significant negative impacts on crop yields. It is regulated in a number of EPPO countries including Azerbaijan (A1), Belarus (Quarantine pest), Jordan (A2), Kazakhstan (A1), the Russian Federation (A1) and Ukraine (A1). The future global distribution of B. pilosa was modelled based on various climate change scenarios. Distribution data was collected from online sources and scientific publications, and from field surveys conducted in 2022-2023. Bioclimatic variables, including 19 derived from monthly temperature and precipitation records, along with elevation data, were obtained from the WorldClim 2.1 database. Future climate projections were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and included two timelines (2041–2060 and 2081–2100) and four scenarios with the lowest (SSP126) being the most optimistic scenario for climate change and the highest being the worst case scenario (SSP585). The results showed range expansion for the 2041–2060 period in all four scenarios and indicate range expansion in Argentina, Brazil, Congo (Republic of), Poland, Ukraine, the north-east of China, and the north-west of the USA. In the period 2081–2100, under the scenario SSP126 more areas in Europe become suitable for B. pilosa. Overall, the results show a decline in tropical regions and an expansion into temperate regions, with climate suitability decreasing under higher temperatures.
Sources
Fan L, Mi C, Li J, Zhang Y, Zhang H, Zhang G, Wang H (2025) Projecting global shifts in the invasive potential of Bidens pilosa L. under climate change using species distribution models. Frontiers in Plant Science 16,1580278.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2025.1580278