The potential spread of Reynoutria japonica in Europe under future climate conditions
Reynoutria japonica (Polygonaceae: EPPO List of Invasive Alien Plants) is native to Japan and is a widespread invasive alien plant in the EPPO region. The species can have negative impacts on areas where it invades, reducing biological diversity and having negative impacts on ecosystem services. Within the EPPO region, R. japonica is a widespread species occurring in most central European countries. The potential for further spread of this species was assessed for 14 countries (Austria, Belgium, Belarus, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine). Using data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and field collected records from Germany and Ukraine, the species future potential distribution was modelled under different climate scenarios up until the year 2100. The results showed the climatic factors that influence the distribution of R. japonica are annual temperature fluctuations and extremes, and the minimum and maximum temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. By 2100, R. japonica has the potential to expand its range into northern distribution by up to 17.0 %. However, a slight overall reduction in the total area (up to 13 %) is projected by this time, due mainly to a decrease in distribution areas in southern parts of Europe. This restriction is due to predicted temperature increase.
Sources
Miroshnyk N, Grabovska T, Roubík H (2025) The spread of the invasive species Reynoutria japonica Houtt. will both expand and contract with climate change: results of climate modelling for 14 European countries, Pest Management Science, DOI 10.1002/ps.8732