Potential distribution of Ulex europaeus in Colombia due to climate change
Ulex europaeus (Fabaceae) is native to the EPPO region but a non-native invasive plant species in many other regions in the world. Its high phenotypic plasticity and the high germination capacity of its seeds allow the species to establish in a wide range of climates and habitat types. It can be found at different latitudes and at altitudes ranging from zero to 4 000 m above sea level. In Colombia, U. europaeus was introduced in the 1950s and utilised as a living fence and has since spread to occupy extensive areas of the Cordillera Central and Cordillera Oriental. It has negative impacts on the environment and high economic costs for control and restoration of degraded land. An ecological niche model was developed to predict the potential future distribution of the species in Colombia for the years 2041–2060. Data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility portal, and records obtained through field trips and bioclimatic variables from Worldclim2 were used in the model. The model showed that under future climate change, the area for new establishment is less than 1%, and there is a reduction in area compared to the current distribution of 12 to 31%. This is due to unsuitable climatic conditions that would affect the germination capacity of seed. However, at higher altitudes, it is likely that U. europaeus will find optimal temperatures for seed germination and establishment.
Sources
Ángel‑Vallejo MC, Aguirre‑Acosta N, Rodríguez‑Rey GT, García‑Marín EJ, Álvarez‑Mejía LM, Feuillet‑Hurtado C (2024) Distribution models in invasive plants with climatic niche expansion: a case study of Ulex europaeus L. in Colombian Andes Biological Invasions 26, 1919-1930