Climate change increases the risk of naturalization from garden plants in Europe
From entry into a new region, to establishment and subsequent spread, alien plant species have to overcome biotic and abiotic barriers and limitations in order to persist and proliferate. Under current climatic conditions, many garden plants are unable to proliferate beyond their artificial niches but under expected climate change scenarios the number of species more suited to the new climatic conditions may increase leading to higher number of species naturalizing outside the confines of the garden wall. In the current study, all vascular plant species that are non-native to Europe were selected from the European Garden Flora. From this set of species those that had naturalized elsewhere other than Europe were selected – in total 783 species, and species distribution models were used to assess their potential European ranges based on different climate change scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, 10 % of Europe is climatically suitable for at least 70 of the species modelled. Climatic hotspots are clustered along the Atlantic coast of Portugal, Spain, France and the Southern Coast of the British Isles, as well as the Mediterranean coast of the Balkan Peninsula and in southern Europe. With climate change predictions, the area that is climatically suitable for these species increases with the severity of the climate change prediction. The areas of high naturalization risk are also predicted to expand under climate change where, under the worst case climatic scenario, 68 % of Europe is considered a high naturalization risk. Based on these potential scenarios, the authors highlight the importance of increasing awareness of plant invasions under climate change within horticultural circles.
Sources
Dullinger I, Wessely J, Bossdorf O, Dawson W, Essl F, Gattringer A, Klonner G, Kreft H, Kuttner M, Moser D, Pergl J, Pyšek P, Thuiller W, van Kleunen, Weigelt P, Winter M, Dullinger S (2017) Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography 26, 43-53.