Predicting the future range of knotweeds (Polygonaceae) in South East Europe
The knotweeds (Polygonaceae), specifically Fallopia japonica var. japonica, Fallopia japonica var. compacta, Fallopia sachalinensis and Fallopia x bohemica are all native to Asia and considered some of the most invasive alien species within the EPPO region. Their negative impacts include outcompeting native biodiversity along with impacts on infrastructure and ecosystem services. Using current distribution data of these knotweed species from 4 081 localities in South East Europe (Serbia and the Kosovo region, Montenegro, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria and Romania), predictions were made on future occurrences using statistical modelling and 19 bioclimatic variables derived from WorldClim datasets. The results predict that the most suitable range for F. japonica var. japonica and F. sachalinensis is in the north of the region studied whereas for F. x bohemica central south east Europe is more suitable. The study predicts that F. japonica and F. x bohemica could expand their range in riparian habitats up to 30 – 40 % and the authors suggest that urgent preventative measures are required to mitigate spread in the region.
Sources
Jovanović S, Hlavati-Širka V, Lakušić D, Jogan N, Nikolić T, Anastasiu P, Vladimirov V, Šinžar-Sekulić (2018) Reynoutria niche modelling and protected area prioritization for restoration and protection from invasion: A Southeastern Europe case study. Journal for Nature Conservation, 41, 1-15.